BCS GURU

Taking the BS out of BCS

 HOME

 STANDINGS

 TEN YEARS OF BCS

 ARCHIVES

 POLLS

 COMPUTERS

 BCS LINKS

 

 ABOUT THE GURU

 CONTACT THE GURU

 GURU IN THE MEDIA

 



 

 

 

 

BCS Automatic Qualification Analysis (2008)

Is the BCS unfair to the non-BCS conferences?

That question is a popular refrain ever since the advent of the BCS itself. While it quieted a bit after the BCS expanded in 2006 to give non-BCS teams more opportunities to qualify for a big payday, in 2008 the dissenters grew a bit louder once again.

The success of the Mountain West Conference was the primary reason for it. The MWC this season will be sending No. 6 Utah to the Sugar Bowl, the first encore performance by a non-BCS guest, as Texas Christian (No. 11) and Brigham Young (No. 16) also finished in the top 25. Only the SEC and the Big 12 could say that they had a better year than the Mountain West, when it comes to each conference's top teams.

Naturally, shouldn't the Mountain West deserve an automatic bid in the BCS, ahead of say, the ACC and the Big East?

Ben Prather, our friend at BCS Evolution, has broken down the performances by team and by conference over each of the past four seasons. Read the entire article of his findings. The data below:

Conference 2005 2006 2007 2008 AVE BEST COMP TOP 25 2006-09  
SEC 0.7534 1.0130 1.0339 0.7892 0.8974 0.8875 0.8547 0.9500 0.9454  
BIG 12 0.8531 0.5693 0.8308 0.9819 0.8087 0.8589 0.7673 0.8000 0.7940  
BIG 10 1.0562 0.7490 0.7214 0.6689 0.7989 0.9040 0.7426 0.7500 0.7131  
ACC 0.8963 0.4371 0.8264 0.7465 0.7265 0.6142 0.8154 0.7500 0.6700  
PAC 10 0.7390 0.8722 0.6561 0.4069 0.6686 0.8417 0.6641 0.5000 0.6451  
BIG EAST 0.3649 0.7702 0.7620 0.5259 0.6058 0.6590 0.6083 0.5500 0.6861  
MWC 0.2137 0.1350 0.1676 0.5347 0.2627 0.4333 0.0549 0.3000 0.2791  
WAC 0.0029 0.3033 0.3489 0.2993 0.2386 0.5158 0.0000 0.2000 0.3172  
OTHER 0.3110 0.2762 0.0001 0.0000 0.1468 0.3405 0.0000 0.1000 0.0921  
MAC 0.0001 0.0002 0.0000 0.1144 0.0287 0.0360 0.0000 0.0500 0.0382  
C-USA 0.0009 0.0041 0.0053 0.0020 0.0030 0.0091 0.0000 0.0000 0.0038  
SUN BELT 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000  
                     
Hypothetical 2005 2006 2007 2008 AVE BEST COMP TOP 25 2006-09  
Awesome 1.7367 1.6541 1.7232 1.6338 1.6869 0.9803 1.9805 2.1000 1.6704  
PAC 12 0.6958 0.7388 0.5983 0.5276 0.6401 0.8417 0.5286 0.5500 0.6215  
Notre Dame 1.0031 0.9966 0.0000 0.0245 0.5060 0.3404 1.0777 0.1000 0.3404  
PAC 10-USC 0.5417 0.6188 0.4925 0.1798 0.4582 0.5299 0.5447 0.3000 0.4304  
MWC+BS 0.2137 0.3700 0.2370 0.6679 0.3722 0.5596 0.1069 0.4500 0.4250  
MWC-UNLV 0.2137 0.1350 0.2017 0.5749 0.2813 0.4333 0.1106 0.3000 0.3038  
                     
Team 2005 2006 2007 2008 Value BCS COMP Top 25 2006-09 Conference
Ohio St 1.1429 1.2333 1.1881 0.9682 1.1331 0.8625 2.3369 0.2000 1.1299 BIG 10
USC 1.2184 1.1157 1.0320 1.0861 1.1130 0.8417 2.2974 0.2000 1.0779 PAC 10
Florida 0.7265 1.1936 0.9714 1.1775 1.0173 0.7029 2.1489 0.2000 1.1142 SEC
Oklahoma 0.6650 0.9228 1.1157 1.2252 0.9822 0.6406 2.1058 0.2000 1.0879 BIG 12
Virginia Tech 1.0497 0.7956 1.1761 0.7467 0.9420 0.5535 2.0726 0.2000 0.9061 ACC
Texas 1.2209 0.6886 0.6550 1.1889 0.9383 0.6107 2.0043 0.2000 0.8442 BIG 12
Georgia 1.0405 0.5021 1.1097 0.8228 0.8688 0.4869 1.9694 0.1500 0.8115 SEC
LSU 0.9685 1.1140 1.1956 0.1857 0.8659 0.6004 1.8474 0.1500 0.8318 SEC
West Virginia 1.0110 0.8855 0.9949 0.4104 0.8255 0.4532 1.8732 0.1500 0.7636 BIG EAST
Penn St 1.1780 0.5481 0.3908 1.0272 0.7860 0.4298 1.8283 0.1000 0.6554 BIG 10
Boise St 0.2607 1.0519 0.4911 1.0381 0.7105 0.3836 1.5977 0.1500 0.8604 WAC
Boston College 0.6957 0.5612 0.9023 0.6513 0.7026 0.2234 1.6844 0.2000 0.7049 ACC
Oregon 1.1027 0.4823 0.5188 0.6910 0.6987 0.2971 1.6990 0.1000 0.5640 PAC 10
Wisconsin 0.7924 1.0222 0.6821 0.1576 0.6635 0.3354 1.5052 0.1500 0.6206 BIG 10
Auburn 0.9660 1.0067 0.6430 -0.1646 0.6128 0.3692 1.3192 0.1500 0.4950 SEC
Texas Tech 0.8558 0.1448 0.2868 1.1158 0.6008 0.3082 1.3942 0.1000 0.5158 BIG 12
Missouri 0.2472 0.2403 1.1062 0.6776 0.5678 0.2349 1.3686 0.1000 0.6747 BIG 12
Alabama 0.8182 0.1165 0.1751 1.1149 0.5562 0.3245 1.2440 0.1000 0.4688 SEC
Georgia Tech 0.6172 0.4275 0.3081 0.8649 0.5545 0.1447 1.4187 0.1000 0.5335 ACC
TCU 0.8317 0.3796 0.0210 0.9619 0.5485 0.2685 1.2772 0.1000 0.4542 MWC
Clemson 0.4740 0.3546 0.8216 0.3711 0.5053 0.1163 1.3496 0.0500 0.5158 ACC
Michigan 0.7741 1.1903 0.4512 -0.4237 0.4980 0.3003 1.0936 0.1000 0.4059 BIG 10
Oregon St 0.0636 0.7149 0.5602 0.4702 0.4522 0.0656 1.2411 0.0500 0.5818 PAC 10
Notre Dame 1.0031 0.9966 -0.2591 0.0245 0.4413 0.3404 0.8834 0.1000 0.2540 OTHER
California 0.3122 0.8578 0.1471 0.3838 0.4252 0.0929 1.1328 0.0500 0.4629 PAC 10
Kansas 0.3602 -0.1448 1.0864 0.3895 0.4228 0.1904 1.0281 0.0500 0.4437 BIG 12
Florida St 0.5627 0.1095 0.4272 0.5834 0.4207 0.0477 1.1643 0.0500 0.3733 ACC
Tennessee 0.1554 0.8518 0.7808 -0.1120 0.4190 0.1775 0.9794 0.1000 0.5068 SEC
Wake Forest -0.0071 0.8072 0.4626 0.4027 0.4163 0.1081 1.0909 0.0500 0.5575 ACC
Louisville 0.6392 1.0907 0.1190 -0.2066 0.4106 0.2625 0.8692 0.1000 0.3344 BIG EAST
Cincinnati -0.3531 0.3602 0.6760 0.9149 0.3995 0.1793 0.9192 0.1000 0.6504 BIG EAST
Arizona St 0.3672 0.4118 0.9983 -0.2731 0.3761 0.1568 0.9214 0.0500 0.3790 PAC 10
Nebraska 0.4137 0.5145 0.0560 0.4940 0.3695 0.0266 1.0320 0.0500 0.3548 BIG 12
South Florida 0.2119 0.2896 0.7708 0.1926 0.3662 0.0529 0.9958 0.0500 0.4177 BIG EAST
South Carolina 0.4299 0.4239 0.2801 0.2906 0.3561 0.0021 1.0663 0.0000 0.3315 SEC
BYU -0.8051 0.6328 0.7488 0.7882 0.3412 0.2164 0.6572 0.1500 0.7233 MWC
Rutgers 0.0989 0.8307 0.2031 0.2313 0.3410 0.0859 0.8871 0.0500 0.4217 BIG EAST
Miami FL 1.0392 -0.0247 -0.1120 0.4097 0.3280 0.1759 0.7582 0.0500 0.0910 ACC
UCLA 0.8148 0.5688 0.2871 -0.3606 0.3275 0.1085 0.8241 0.0500 0.1651 PAC 10
Utah -0.0953 -0.0388 0.3086 1.1125 0.3217 0.1965 0.7187 0.0500 0.4607 MWC
Maryland 0.2401 0.3567 0.2521 0.3361 0.2963 0.0001 0.8887 0.0000 0.3150 ACC
Arkansas -0.1624 0.8992 0.4353 -0.0350 0.2843 0.1405 0.6623 0.0500 0.4332 SEC
Michigan St 0.2648 -0.2154 0.2908 0.7364 0.2692 0.0718 0.6857 0.0500 0.2706 BIG 10
Virginia 0.2895 -0.1730 0.7297 0.1646 0.2527 0.0587 0.6494 0.0500 0.2404 ACC
Oklahoma St -0.1201 0.0212 0.1996 0.8836 0.2461 0.1216 0.5666 0.0500 0.3681 BIG 12
Hawaii -0.3814 0.3469 0.9790 0.0070 0.2379 0.1650 0.4987 0.0500 0.4443 WAC
Iowa 0.5526 0.1095 -0.1541 0.3662 0.2185 0.0240 0.6316 0.0000 0.1072 BIG 10
Texas A&M 0.1871 0.5605 0.3536 -0.2661 0.2088 0.0367 0.5397 0.0500 0.2160 BIG 12
Northwestern 0.6612 -0.2472 -0.1401 0.5502 0.2061 0.0566 0.4616 0.1000 0.0543 BIG 10
Pittsburgh -0.0989 0.0106 -0.0945 0.7271 0.1361 0.0595 0.2988 0.0500 0.2144 BIG EAST
Connecticut -0.2754 -0.1377 0.6412 0.2416 0.1174 0.0186 0.2836 0.0500 0.2484 BIG EAST
Navy -0.0953 0.2583 0.0386 0.2626 0.1161 0.0005 0.3477 0.0000 0.1865 OTHER
Tulsa 0.1492 0.1201 0.0526 0.1233 0.1113 0.0013 0.3326 0.0000 0.0987 C-USA
Purdue 0.3037 0.2260 0.0735 -0.2346 0.0921 0.0000 0.2764 0.0000 0.0216 BIG 10
Kentucky -0.4131 0.3849 0.3923 -0.0665 0.0744 0.0001 0.2230 0.0000 0.2369 SEC
North Carolina 0.3355 -0.3849 -0.2101 0.5275 0.0670 0.0070 0.1940 0.0000 -0.0225 ACC
NC State 0.3107 -0.3708 0.0000 0.2521 0.0480 0.0000 0.1441 0.0000 -0.0396 ACC
Minnesota 0.5645 0.2260 -0.6723 0.0595 0.0444 0.0156 0.1178 0.0000 -0.1289 BIG 10
C Michigan -0.0318 0.1556 -0.0945 0.0805 0.0274 0.0001 0.0822 0.0000 0.0472 MAC
Arizona -0.3284 0.3776 0.0525 -0.0175 0.0211 0.0025 0.0607 0.0000 0.1375 PAC 10
Colorado 0.4484 -0.5826 0.1611 0.0070 0.0085 0.0000 0.0254 0.0000 -0.1382 BIG 12
Nevada 0.0640 0.0812 -0.3291 0.0770 -0.0267 0.0004 -0.0805 0.0000 -0.0570 WAC
Kansas St 0.1024 0.0812 -0.1225 -0.1961 -0.0338 0.0000 -0.1013 0.0000 -0.0791 BIG 12
Vanderbilt -0.0636 -0.1730 -0.0350 0.1155 -0.0390 0.0000 -0.1170 0.0000 -0.0308 SEC
Fresno St 0.1361 -0.3990 0.0735 -0.0070 -0.0491 0.0014 -0.1487 0.0000 -0.1108 WAC
Air Force -0.4626 -0.3884 0.3440 0.3011 -0.0515 0.0033 -0.1577 0.0000 0.0856 MWC
Illinois -0.3884 -0.5791 0.8397 -0.0945 -0.0556 0.1149 -0.3317 0.0500 0.0553 BIG 10
East Carolina -0.3566 -0.0318 -0.1085 0.2646 -0.0581 0.0015 -0.1758 0.0000 0.0414 C-USA
Ball St -0.3001 -0.3919 -0.1716 0.6010 -0.0657 0.0358 -0.2827 0.0500 0.0125 MAC
Houston -0.2790 0.2689 -0.1748 -0.0840 -0.0672 0.0032 -0.2049 0.0000 0.0033 C-USA
W Michigan -0.1695 0.0000 -0.4202 0.2872 -0.0756 0.0001 -0.2269 0.0000 -0.0443 MAC
Stanford 0.2119 -0.3319 -0.1821 -0.1190 -0.1053 0.0000 -0.3159 0.0000 -0.2110 PAC 10
Mississippi -0.5120 -0.1801 -0.3256 0.5077 -0.1275 0.0209 -0.4534 0.0500 0.0007 SEC
New Mexico -0.1130 -0.2154 0.1225 -0.3571 -0.1407 0.0000 -0.4222 0.0000 -0.1500 MWC
Indiana -0.0742 -0.0282 0.0455 -0.5252 -0.1455 0.0000 -0.4366 0.0000 -0.1693 BIG 10
Washington St -0.2260 0.3178 -0.0105 -0.7283 -0.1617 0.0000 -0.4852 0.0000 -0.1403 PAC 10
UCF 0.0671 -0.4696 0.3134 -0.5847 -0.1685 0.0039 -0.5094 0.0000 -0.2470 C-USA
Southern Miss -0.1660 0.0883 -0.2941 -0.3151 -0.1717 0.0000 -0.5152 0.0000 -0.1737 C-USA
Troy -0.6568 -0.2507 0.1296 -0.0175 -0.1989 0.0000 -0.5966 0.0000 -0.0462 SUN BELT
Baylor 0.1306 -0.2825 -0.4762 -0.1821 -0.2025 0.0000 -0.6076 0.0000 -0.3136 BIG 12
Mississippi St -0.5226 -0.3143 0.3326 -0.3396 -0.2110 0.0000 -0.6329 0.0000 -0.1071 SEC
Iowa St 0.3851 -0.3637 -0.3676 -0.6583 -0.2511 0.0002 -0.7535 0.0000 -0.4632 BIG 12
Colorado St 0.0847 -0.5862 -0.5252 0.0210 -0.2514 0.0000 -0.7542 0.0000 -0.3635 MWC
Buffalo -0.0035 -0.7486 -0.4657 0.0667 -0.2878 0.0002 -0.8635 0.0000 -0.3825 MAC
Washington -0.5155 0.2225 -0.0945 -0.7948 -0.2956 0.0000 -0.8868 0.0000 -0.2223 PAC 10
Louisiana Tech -0.0353 -0.6744 -0.3957 -0.1050 -0.3026 0.0000 -0.9078 0.0000 -0.3917 WAC
Rice -0.7239 0.0495 -0.7493 0.1756 -0.3120 0.0004 -0.9365 0.0000 -0.1747 C-USA
N Illinois -0.0282 -0.1730 -0.7668 -0.3081 -0.3191 0.0000 -0.9572 0.0000 -0.4160 MAC
Wyoming -0.4237 -0.1907 -0.2416 -0.4447 -0.3252 0.0000 -0.9755 0.0000 -0.2923 MWC
San Jose St -0.6992 0.0459 -0.4272 -0.2381 -0.3296 0.0000 -0.9889 0.0000 -0.2065 WAC
Bowling Green -0.2472 -0.6603 -0.1680 -0.2941 -0.3424 0.0000 -1.0273 0.0000 -0.3742 MAC
Ohio -0.4732 0.0000 -0.4132 -0.5777 -0.3660 0.0000 -1.0980 0.0000 -0.3303 MAC
UTEP -0.0670 -0.4661 -0.6373 -0.3852 -0.3889 0.0001 -1.1667 0.0000 -0.4962 C-USA
Akron -0.1624 -0.4555 -0.5287 -0.4482 -0.3987 0.0000 -1.1961 0.0000 -0.4775 MAC
Toledo 0.0813 -0.5438 -0.4692 -0.6723 -0.4010 0.0001 -1.2030 0.0000 -0.5617 MAC
Syracuse -0.6568 -0.1377 -0.4727 -0.4132 -0.4201 0.0000 -1.2603 0.0000 -0.3412 BIG EAST
Middle Tenn St -0.6144 -0.1201 -0.3957 -0.5532 -0.4208 0.0000 -1.2625 0.0000 -0.3563 SUN BELT
FL Atlantic -0.7380 -0.5332 -0.0735 -0.3852 -0.4325 0.0000 -1.2974 0.0000 -0.3306 SUN BELT
Memphis -0.2366 -0.7415 -0.3641 -0.4727 -0.4537 0.0000 -1.3612 0.0000 -0.5261 C-USA
San Diego St -0.2790 -0.5932 -0.3326 -0.7003 -0.4763 0.0000 -1.4288 0.0000 -0.5420 MWC
Arkansas St -0.5544 -0.4131 -0.5322 -0.4552 -0.4887 0.0000 -1.4662 0.0000 -0.4668 SUN BELT
Miami OH -0.1201 -0.7380 -0.3396 -0.7738 -0.4929 0.0000 -1.4786 0.0000 -0.6171 MAC
Marshall -0.5438 -0.3814 -0.6268 -0.4902 -0.5105 0.0000 -1.5316 0.0000 -0.4994 C-USA
LA Lafayette -0.5226 -0.4096 -0.6793 -0.4552 -0.5167 0.0000 -1.5500 0.0000 -0.5147 SUN BELT
Duke -0.6992 -0.8121 -0.6057 -0.0560 -0.5433 0.0000 -1.6298 0.0000 -0.4913 ACC
LA Monroe -0.5897 -0.6427 -0.2766 -0.6968 -0.5514 0.0000 -1.6543 0.0000 -0.5387 SUN BELT
SMU -0.3319 -0.2790 -0.8193 -0.8053 -0.5589 0.0000 -1.6766 0.0000 -0.6345 C-USA
UNLV -0.6744 -0.7203 -0.6303 -0.2486 -0.5684 0.0000 -1.7052 0.0000 -0.5331 MWC
Army -0.4131 -0.6250 -0.5882 -0.6723 -0.5747 0.0000 -1.7240 0.0000 -0.6285 OTHER
UAB -0.4732 -0.6356 -0.7633 -0.6127 -0.6212 0.0000 -1.8636 0.0000 -0.6705 C-USA
Temple -0.7556 -0.7768 -0.5952 -0.3992 -0.6317 0.0000 -1.8952 0.0000 -0.5904 MAC
Tulane -0.7345 -0.3637 -0.6723 -0.7668 -0.6343 0.0000 -1.9029 0.0000 -0.6009 C-USA
E Michigan -0.5367 -0.8086 -0.5602 -0.6758 -0.6453 0.0000 -1.9360 0.0000 -0.6815 MAC
Kent -0.8192 -0.4555 -0.6758 -0.6408 -0.6478 0.0000 -1.9434 0.0000 -0.5907 MAC
Utah St -0.6532 -0.7804 -0.7423 -0.5077 -0.6709 0.0000 -2.0127 0.0000 -0.6768 WAC
Florida Intl -0.6215 -0.8333 -0.7948 -0.5567 -0.7016 0.0000 -2.1048 0.0000 -0.7283 SUN BELT
New Mexico St -0.8227 -0.6603 -0.6933 -0.6688 -0.7113 0.0000 -2.1338 0.0000 -0.6741 WAC
Idaho -0.7839 -0.5438 -0.8228 -0.7528 -0.7258 0.0000 -2.1775 0.0000 -0.7065 WAC
North Texas -0.7698 -0.7274 -0.7808 -0.8193 -0.7743 0.0000 -2.3230 0.0000 -0.7758 SUN BELT
W Kentucky -0.8333 -0.8333 -0.6197 -0.8298 -0.7791 0.0000 -2.3372 0.0000 -0.7610 OTHER

Key: Beige denotes BCS teams with values below 0 (underperforming); Yellow denotes non-BCS teams with values above 0 (overperforming); Green denotes non-BCS teams with values above 0.5 (BCS-caliber).

 

2008 Season

2007 Season

2006 Season

 

2005 Season (Full season standings)

2004 Season (Full season standings)

2003 Season (Full season standings)

2002 Season (Full season standings)

2001 Season (Full season standings)

2000 Season (Full season standings)

1999 Season (Full season standings)

1998 Season (Full season standings)

 

 

 

 A Production of SC Publications, All Rights Reserved 2009 BCS GURU