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BCS Automatic Qualification Analysis (2009)

With the news that the BCS conferences will stay intact at least through the next TV contract (concluding with the bowls in January 2014), the debate will rage among BCS critics that the so-called Coalition conferences are getting the shaft.

But the truth is more complicated than that. During each review period, the BCS conferences have far out-performed the Coalitions conferences, even including the past two seasons, when the best Mountain West teams joined the elite. Obviously, even if the formula for the evaluation is unbiased, the present arrangement of college football leaves an uneven playing field between the haves and have-nots.

We have decided to play watchdog on all this development, with the help our friend Ben Prather at BCS Evolution, who once again produced the goods on the AQ question. Last year, he released the simulation of the BCS evaluation process up through 2008. From now on, the Guru will host the ongoing evaluation for 2009 and beyond.

Here's Ben's explanation for the keys to the data, and the previous data set.

 

FINAL - 2009 SEASON

CONFERENCE TABLE

SEC BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.9445 1.0946 1.0000 1.0130 0.8333 0.9681
2007 0.9394 1.1625 1.0000 1.0339 1.0556 1.0394
2008 0.9479 0.6197 0.8000 0.7892 1.0000 0.8419
2009 0.9978 1.1984 0.6000 0.9321 0.7000 0.8740
AVE 0.9574 1.0188 0.8500 0.9421 0.8972 0.9309
           
BIG 12 BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.6297 0.2869 0.8000 0.5722 0.2500 0.4917
2007 0.8572 0.7248 0.8000 0.7940 0.7500 0.7830
2008 0.9757 0.8071 1.0000 0.9276 0.6429 0.8564
2009 0.9433 0.3545 0.6000 0.6326 0.5000 0.5995
AVE 0.8515 0.5433 0.8000 0.7316 0.5357 0.6826
           
PAC 10 BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.7953 1.2214 0.6000 0.8722 0.5000 0.7792
2007 0.7637 0.8046 0.4000 0.6561 0.8333 0.7004
2008 0.8208 0.0000 0.4000 0.4069 1.5000 0.6802
2009 0.7568 0.9548 1.0000 0.9039 0.0714 0.6958
AVE 0.7842 0.7452 0.6000 0.7098 0.7262 0.7139
           
BIG EAST BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.7944 0.9163 0.6000 0.7702 1.5000 0.9527
2007 0.6628 0.8233 0.8000 0.7620 0.7000 0.7465
2008 0.5384 0.6394 0.4000 0.5259 0.8333 0.6028
2009 0.8878 0.8390 0.6000 0.7756 0.8333 0.7900
AVE 0.7209 0.8045 0.6000 0.7085 0.9667 0.7730
           
BIG 10 BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.9999 0.6471 0.6000 0.7490 0.0714 0.5796
2007 0.9588 0.6054 0.6000 0.7214 0.2500 0.6036
2008 0.7387 0.4679 0.8000 0.6689 -0.2143 0.4481
2009 0.6568 0.3380 0.8000 0.5983 0.6429 0.6094
AVE 0.8385 0.5146 0.7000 0.6844 0.1875 0.5602
           
ACC BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.4314 0.2798 0.6000 0.4371 0.5000 0.4528
2007 0.8703 0.8088 0.8000 0.8264 0.0000 0.6198
2008 0.4516 1.1879 0.6000 0.7465 0.3000 0.6349
2009 0.6471 0.5077 0.6000 0.5849 0.3571 0.5280
AVE 0.6001 0.6961 0.6500 0.6487 0.2893 0.5589
           
MWC BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.2049 0.0000 0.2000 0.1350 1.0000 0.3512
2007 0.3027 0.0000 0.2000 0.1676 1.1000 0.4007
2008 0.7846 0.2194 0.6000 0.5347 0.7000 0.5760
2009 0.8836 0.0000 0.6000 0.4945 1.1000 0.6459
AVE 0.5439 0.0549 0.4000 0.3329 0.9750 0.4934
           
WAC BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.7099 0.0000 0.2000 0.3033 1.0000 0.4775
2007 0.6468 0.0000 0.4000 0.3489 0.0000 0.2617
2008 0.6980 0.0000 0.2000 0.2993 -0.1000 0.1995
2009 0.8106 0.0000 0.2000 0.3369 0.5000 0.3776
AVE 0.7163 0.0000 0.2500 0.3221 0.3500 0.3291
           
MAC BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001
2007 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 -0.5000 -0.1250
2008 0.1431 0.0000 0.2000 0.1144 -0.5000 -0.0392
2009 0.0416 0.0000 0.0000 0.0139 -0.1000 -0.0146
AVE 0.0463 0.0000 0.0500 0.0321 -0.2750 -0.0447
           
C-USA BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.0123 0.0000 0.0000 0.0041 -0.1000 -0.0219
2007 0.0158 0.0000 0.0000 0.0053 0.1667 0.0456
2008 0.0060 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.8333 0.2098
2009 0.0492 0.0000 0.0000 0.0164 0.1667 0.0540
AVE 0.0208 0.0000 0.0000 0.0069 0.2667 0.0719
           
SUN BELT BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.5000 0.1250
2007 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.5000 0.3750
2008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.5000 0.1250
2009 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.5000 0.1253
AVE 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.7500 0.1876
           
MWC+BS BEST COMP TOP 25 AVE BOWL MOD
2006 0.7099 0.0000 0.4000 0.3700 1.1000 0.5525
2007 0.3027 0.0084 0.4000 0.2370 0.8333 0.3861
2008 0.7846 0.4191 0.8000 0.6679 0.5000 0.6259
2009 0.8836 0.1544 0.8000 0.6127 1.1667 0.7512
AVE 0.6702 0.1455 0.6000 0.4719 0.9000 0.5789

Key: Beige denotes teams with values below 0.500 (at-large); Yellow denotes teams with values between 0.500 and .7500 (automatic qualifying); Green denotes teams with values above 0.7500 (premier). (MWC+BS: Mountain West plus Boise State)

 

TEAM-BY-TEAM

Team Conference 2006 2007 2008 2009 Value BCS COMP Top 25
Florida SEC 4.5466 2.4314 4.5569 3.9281 3.8658 7.1655 2.3318 2.1000
Ohio St BIG 10 5.0323 4.6522 2.5160 2.5853 3.6965 6.7493 2.2400 2.1000
Texas BIG 12 1.3812 1.3161 4.4298 4.5303 2.9144 4.6571 1.9860 2.1000
USC PAC 10 3.4583 3.1948 3.5824 1.3024 2.8845 4.4345 2.1189 2.1000
Oklahoma BIG 12 2.4476 3.8443 4.8249 0.2801 2.8492 5.0804 1.8922 1.5750
LSU SEC 3.6835 4.5093 0.1856 2.1485 2.6317 4.4613 1.8588 1.5750
Boise St WAC 2.9346 1.1019 2.8635 3.5268 2.6067 3.7485 1.9716 2.1000
Virginia Tech ACC 1.7061 3.9922 1.4016 2.2390 2.3347 2.8837 2.0205 2.1000
Alabama SEC 0.1165 0.1751 3.7591 5.0143 2.2662 4.3299 1.4188 1.0500
Cincinnati BIG EAST 0.3602 1.2971 2.1131 4.1081 1.9696 2.5433 1.7906 1.5750
TCU MWC 0.3654 0.0210 2.3156 4.0457 1.6869 2.6141 1.3967 1.0500
West Virginia BIG EAST 1.9912 2.6591 0.4097 1.5727 1.6582 1.5913 1.8082 1.5750
Georgia SEC 0.4979 3.7215 1.6367 0.4906 1.5867 1.9238 1.7862 1.0500
BYU MWC 1.2644 1.4576 1.5706 1.8104 1.5257 0.7461 1.7311 2.1000
Penn St BIG 10 0.5322 0.3887 3.0558 2.0174 1.4985 1.7746 1.6709 1.0500
Wisconsin BIG 10 3.0996 1.3788 0.1576 1.1658 1.4504 1.4037 1.3726 1.5750
Oregon PAC 10 0.4768 0.5084 1.4463 3.2002 1.4079 1.4849 1.6889 1.0500
Georgia Tech ACC 0.4173 0.3081 1.8273 2.6039 1.2892 1.2445 1.5730 1.0500
Missouri BIG 12 0.2401 3.3390 1.2941 0.2731 1.2866 1.4217 1.3881 1.0500
Utah MWC -0.0388 0.3081 3.3926 1.2151 1.2192 1.4446 1.1631 1.0500
Boston College ACC 1.1735 1.8812 1.2621 0.2696 1.1466 0.3887 1.4762 1.5750
Michigan BIG 10 4.4663 0.4482 -0.4237 -0.3186 1.0431 2.2157 0.3885 0.5250
Texas Tech BIG 12 0.1448 0.2803 3.3929 0.3187 1.0342 1.4290 1.1485 0.5250
Auburn SEC 2.6096 1.2574 -0.1646 0.4132 1.0289 0.9135 1.1233 1.0500
Oregon St PAC 10 1.3277 0.5427 0.4542 1.4645 0.9473 0.1416 1.6503 1.0500
Oklahoma St BIG 12 0.0212 0.1996 1.9328 1.3771 0.8827 0.5264 1.0716 1.0500
Tennessee SEC 1.6789 1.5166 -0.1120 0.3256 0.8523 0.3998 1.1071 1.0500
Kansas BIG 12 -0.1448 3.2228 0.3887 -0.2206 0.8115 1.3170 0.5926 0.5250
Louisville BIG EAST 3.4280 0.1190 -0.2066 -0.2591 0.7703 1.4766 0.3094 0.5250
Arkansas SEC 2.0317 0.4217 -0.0350 0.4625 0.7202 0.5049 1.1307 0.5250
Nebraska BIG 12 1.1260 0.0560 0.4902 1.1362 0.7021 0.0349 1.0215 1.0500
Iowa BIG 10 0.1095 -0.1541 0.3608 2.4478 0.6910 0.7884 0.7596 0.5250
Pittsburgh BIG EAST 0.0106 -0.0945 1.3776 1.4642 0.6895 0.2174 0.8010 1.0500
Clemson ACC 0.3531 1.6474 0.3711 0.3782 0.6875 0.2406 1.2969 0.5250
California PAC 10 1.6442 0.1471 0.3817 0.4907 0.6659 0.2053 1.2674 0.5250
Hawaii WAC 0.3426 2.5743 0.0070 -0.3081 0.6540 0.8832 0.5536 0.5250
Wake Forest ACC 1.7246 0.4622 0.4027 -0.0700 0.6298 0.3209 1.0437 0.5250
Arizona St PAC 10 0.4096 2.4859 -0.2731 -0.1085 0.6285 0.7958 0.5646 0.5250
Notre Dame OTHER 2.5173 -0.2591 0.0245 0.0805 0.5908 0.8227 0.4247 0.5250
Rutgers BIG EAST 1.5906 0.2031 0.2311 0.1891 0.5535 0.1807 0.9547 0.5250
South Florida BIG EAST 0.2895 1.4055 0.1926 0.2136 0.5253 0.0538 0.9971 0.5250
Miami FL ACC -0.0247 -0.1120 0.4097 1.8127 0.5214 0.3408 0.6984 0.5250
Arizona PAC 10 0.3743 0.0525 -0.0175 1.4001 0.4524 0.0629 0.7692 0.5250
Connecticut BIG EAST -0.1377 1.2550 0.2416 0.2871 0.4115 0.0040 0.7055 0.5250
Michigan St BIG 10 -0.2154 0.2906 1.4281 0.0000 0.3758 0.1154 0.4871 0.5250
South Carolina SEC 0.4237 0.2801 0.2906 0.4097 0.3510 0.0000 1.0531 0.0000
Florida St ACC 0.1095 0.4272 0.5630 0.2416 0.3353 0.0047 1.0012 0.0000
Texas A&M BIG 12 1.1738 0.3536 -0.2661 -0.0385 0.3057 0.0217 0.3705 0.5250
Mississippi SEC -0.1801 -0.3256 1.1203 0.4695 0.2710 0.0055